BTC Price Prediction: Will It Surge to $90,000?

#BTC

• Technical Hurdle at Moving Average: Bitcoin's price is currently testing a crucial resistance level at its 20-day moving average near $88,500. A successful break above this level is the first necessary step for any rally toward $90,000.
• Bullish Momentum vs. Speculative Cooling: While the MACD indicator shows building bullish momentum, news of retreating derivatives activity and ETF outflows suggests short-term speculative fever is cooling, which may delay an immediate explosive move.
• The $90,400 CME Gap as a Target: A clear technical target exists at $90,400 due to a gap in CME Bitcoin futures. This level acts as a magnetic price point and provides a concrete objective for bulls if they can overcome near-term resistance.

BTC Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: BTC at Critical Juncture Near $88K

As of December 29, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at, positioned just below its 20-day moving average of 88,549.19. This places the price in a pivotal zone between key technical levels.

The MACD indicator shows a bullish configuration, with the MACD line (1,466.62) above the signal line (1,181.12) and a positive histogram reading of 285.50. This suggests underlying upward momentum is building. However, price action remains contained within the Bollinger Bands, with the upper band at 92,467.47 acting as immediate resistance and the lower band at 84,630.91 providing support.

"The convergence of price NEAR the moving average, coupled with a bullish MACD cross, indicates a potential inflection point," says BTCC financial analyst Olivia. "A sustained break above the 20-day MA could open a path toward the upper Bollinger Band. The key will be whether bulls can muster enough strength to overcome the resistance cluster between 88,500 and 89,000."

Market Sentiment: A Mix of Bullish Conviction and Near-Term Caution

Current headlines paint a complex picture for Bitcoin. Positive long-term narratives, such as Samson Mow's prediction of a "decade-long bull run," contrast with near-term warnings of a potential drop to $70K and noted cooling in derivatives activity.

The emergence of a CME futures gap at $90,400 is highlighted as a key technical target for any bullish rebound scenario. Meanwhile, news of Michael Saylor signaling new bitcoin purchases provides a counter-narrative to short-term outflows from ETFs, suggesting "smart money" may be positioning differently.

"The news FLOW reflects a market in transition," observes BTCC's Olivia. "The bullish macro predictions for 2026 are being tempered by immediate technical warnings and a retreat from speculative extremes. The positive takeaway is that this cooling of derivative fever and ETF volatility may be creating a healthier foundation for the next leg up, provided key support holds."

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin Stalls Near $88K as MACD Bullish Cross Hints at Trend Shift

Bitcoin's price action has entered a consolidation phase following its volatile 2025 rally, reflecting late-cycle dynamics characterized by thinning liquidity and reduced leverage. The cryptocurrency remains range-bound between $86,500 and $90,000, with market participants awaiting a decisive breakout or breakdown to determine the next directional move.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes the critical nature of the $86.5K support level, warning that repeated tests could lead to a breakdown toward $80K. Conversely, a clean breakout above $90K may open the path to $105K, as buyers and sellers remain in equilibrium.

The MACD's bullish cross suggests a potential trend shift, though low-volume conditions demand caution. Institutional interest continues to underpin Bitcoin's resilience, even as retail traders hesitate in the current range-bound environment.

Bitcoin's 2026 Outlook: Samson Mow Predicts Decade-Long Bull Run Amid Market Divergence

Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, asserts that 2025 marked the end of Bitcoin's bear cycle rather than its beginning. His contrarian view suggests a potential 10-year bull run starting in 2026, fueled by structural demand drivers and constrained supply dynamics.

This bullish thesis clashes with cautionary forecasts from analysts like Peter Brandt, who anticipate near-term corrections. The divergence underscores Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class where macroeconomic factors increasingly outweigh retail sentiment.

Market infrastructure developments—from ETF approvals to institutional custody solutions—create fundamental support absent in previous cycles. Volatility persists, but the floor appears elevated compared to historical bear markets.

Bitcoin Derivatives Retreat Signals Cooling Speculative Fever

Bitcoin's failure to breach $90,000 has triggered a tactical withdrawal from leveraged positions, with open interest on futures contracts plunging to $42 billion—an eight-month low. The drop from $47 billion in two weeks reflects eroding bullish momentum absent fresh catalysts.

Friday's market activity saw $260 million in liquidations as BTC faced rejection at $89,000. Notably, the stable 5% futures basis rate suggests tempered but persistent institutional confidence amidst the deleveraging.

Coinbase Faces $400M Fallout After Insider Data Breach

Hyderabad police arrested a former Coinbase customer support agent for allegedly stealing sensitive user data—including names, addresses, and identity documents—as part of a coordinated cybercrime operation. The breach exposed 69,461 accounts during the December 2024 infiltration.

Coinbase refused ransom demands, instead deploying a $20 million bounty program to identify perpetrators. The exchange now faces up to $400 million in preventative security upgrades. CEO Brian Armstrong's firm stance signals zero tolerance for internal compromises.

The incident underscores persistent vulnerabilities in crypto's human attack surface—where trusted employees pose equal threat to code exploits. Market observers note the arrest may temporarily impact trader confidence in centralized exchanges.

Crypto Mining Bolsters Ruble Strength, Says Russia’s Central Bank

Cryptocurrency mining has emerged as a subtle yet meaningful contributor to the ruble's resilience, according to Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina. While difficult to quantify due to its semi-opaque nature, mining operations generate consistent demand for the local currency through electricity payments, equipment purchases, and service fees. Profits reinvested into the domestic economy create a reinforcing loop.

Russia now commands 15.5% of global Bitcoin mining capacity, maintaining its position as the second-largest player behind the United States' 37.8% dominance. The sector's growth trajectory—though not explosive—adds ballast to currency markets already buoyed by traditional macroeconomic factors.

Bitcoin Holds $88K Support Amid ETF Volatility as HYPER Gains Traction

Bitcoin's price consolidation between $88,000 and $89,500 reveals a bullish flag pattern, with $89,500 serving as the decisive breakout level. Despite the Bank of Japan's historic rate cut, BTC demonstrates resilience—suggesting the market had already priced in the move. Macro conditions strengthen the case for crypto, with cooling US inflation and shifting Fed rate expectations.

ETF flows tell a different story. After a $457 million inflow last Wednesday, the largest crypto ETFs bled $319 million over two sessions, creating neutral-to-negative momentum. This volatility hasn't dampened all opportunities—Bitcoin Hyper, a Layer-2 solution, continues to attract capital with $29.6 million raised in its presale, emerging as a hedge during choppy markets.

The broader narrative remains constructive. CPI data fuels speculation of 2026 rate cuts, while Bitcoin's technical structure holds firm. Traders now watch for either a decisive breakout above $89,500 or a breakdown from this tightening range.

Bitcoin's Precarious Balance: $70K Drop Looms as Technicals Flash Warning Signs

Bitcoin hovers near $88,000, its stagnation belying underlying market volatility. Analysts are split between anticipating a rebound or bracing for a sharp correction. Technical indicators and increased BTC inflows on Binance suggest growing bearish pressure.

The cryptocurrency's narrow trading range masks a battle between bulls and bears, with critical support levels at risk. A decisive break could trigger cascading effects across crypto markets.

Michael Saylor Signals New Bitcoin Purchase Amid MSTR Stock Decline

Michael Saylor teases another Bitcoin acquisition despite MicroStrategy's stock plummeting 43% in 2025. The company holds 671,268 BTC (3.2% of total supply), but its mNAV ratio nears 0.93—dangerously close to the critical threshold of 1. A 15-20% drop in Bitcoin's price could force liquidation of reserves.

Saylor's cryptic December 21 tweet ('Green Dots ₿eget Orange Dots') mirrors his pattern of signaling purchases before SEC filings. This theatrical approach reinforces his reputation as Bitcoin's relentless institutional champion, even as regulators scrutinize the company's strategy.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Mask Smart Money Positioning in Derivatives

Bitcoin ETF outflows appear alarming at first glance, but a deeper analysis reveals a nuanced market dynamic. While headlines suggest panic selling, derivatives data tells a different story—one of structured position unwinding rather than wholesale capitulation.

Approximately $4.5 billion has exited BTC ETFs, representing just 2.5% of assets under management. This trickle of redemptions coincides with coordinated reductions in futures and options exposure, characteristic of professional traders rebalancing composite positions rather than retail investors fleeing the market.

The market shows signs of stress with $100 billion in unrealized losses across positions and mining companies trading below book value. Yet the ETF flow pattern contradicts a true risk-off environment. Nearly 60% of ETF inflows occurred at higher price levels, yet the modest outflows suggest holders are absorbing paper losses rather than liquidating en masse.

Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Shifts Drivers from Halving to Politics and Liquidity

Bitcoin's four-year market cycle remains intact, but its primary catalysts have evolved. According to 10x Research, political cycles and liquidity conditions now outweigh the impact of halving events in driving price action. This shift reflects deepening institutional involvement and broader macroeconomic influences on cryptocurrency markets.

Historical data shows Bitcoin's peak valuations consistently align with U.S. presidential election years rather than halving timelines. The fourth-quarter peaks observed in 2013, 2017, and 2021 suggest political cycles may provide stronger directional signals than programmed supply reductions. Markus Thielen of 10x Research emphasizes that while the cyclical pattern persists, its mechanisms have fundamentally changed.

Current liquidity flows indicate a consolidation phase rather than parabolic growth. The market appears to be transitioning from retail-driven halving speculation to institutionally-dominated macro trading. This evolution positions Bitcoin increasingly as a barometer of global risk appetite rather than a purely crypto-native asset.

Bitcoin CME Gap at $90.4K Emerges as Key Level for Rebound Scenario

Bitcoin's price action remains tightly range-bound, with traders eyeing the $90,400 CME futures gap as a pivotal level for directional bias. Weekend liquidity conditions exacerbated the asset's slide, though market participants debate whether this represents a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper correction.

Technical analyst Ted Pillows identifies $92,000-$94,000 as the critical resistance zone needing conquest for bullish continuation. Conversely, sustained trading below $88,000-$89,000 risks accelerating losses toward $85,000 support. The compression in trading volume suggests mounting tension between bulls and bears ahead of a potential breakout.

Will BTC Price Hit 90000?

Based on the current technical setup and market sentiment, a move to $90,000 is a plausible near-term scenario, but it is not a foregone conclusion and faces immediate hurdles.

The primary challenge is the resistance zone between the current 20-day Moving Average (~$88,549) and the upper Bollinger Band (~$92,467). A clean break and hold above $88.5K would be the first major step. The bullish MACD crossover supports this potential upward move.

Fundamentally, the path is supported by long-term bullish forecasts and strategic buying signals from figures like Michael Saylor. However, it is opposed by warnings of a sharp correction and evidence of cooling short-term speculation.

The most likely catalyst for a $90K test would be a combination of positive momentum breaking technical resistance and a shift in the news cycle to focus on the long-term bull narrative or the filling of the CME gap at $90,400.

In summary, while the $90,000 level is within striking distance and supported by several technical and fundamental factors, the market must first navigate the significant resistance just overhead. The probability of a test increases significantly if Bitcoin can reclaim and sustain a position above $88,500 in the coming sessions.